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Ormiga Capital Admin

Ormiga Weekly Market Update: 28th October 2023

US

The U.S. stock market wrapped up the week with a disspointing performance, reflecting the complex blend of factors influencing investor sentiment. Despite a largely positive week of earnings reports and economic data releases, the Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500, and the Nasdaq experienced weekly losses exceeding 2%. The benchmark S&P 500 index closed 10.28% below its July 31st all-time high, underlining the recent market turbulence.


Amidst the ups and downs, there was some positive news for the U.S. economy. The Commerce Department reported that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 4.9% in the third quarter, surpassing expectations and indicating robust economic activity. This figure marked a significant improvement over the second quarter's 2.1% growth rate, raising optimism about the nation's economic prospects.

In addition to the GDP figures, corporate earnings have shown resilience, with 78% of S&P 500 companies reporting so far surpassing consensus estimates. This has contributed to the optimism in the market, resulting in analysts revising their projections for aggregate annual S&P earnings growth to 4.3%. Notably, this represents a substantial improvement from the 1.6% growth forecasted at the beginning of the month.


Meanwhile, on the monetary policy front, the Federal Reserve's target interest rate remained unchanged, in line with market expectations. Additionally, the Commerce Department's report on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) showed inflation moderating, moving closer to the central bank's 2% annual target. These developments suggest that the Fed may maintain its current stance in the near term, providing further stability in the financial markets.


As the week concluded, oil prices eased, and the cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, continued to show strength, with various digital assets experiencing gains. Ford and the United Auto Workers (UAW) union have reached a tentative deal, which includes a record pay rise, to end a nearly six-week strike. The agreement would be the first settlement of strikes by workers at Ford, General Motors (GM) and Chrysler-parent Stellantis. The deal still needs to be approved by union leaders and members.

Mexico


Hurricane Otis unleashed its devastating force on Mexico, leaving a grim trail of destruction in its wake. The Mexican government confirmed on Thursday that at least 27 lives were tragically claimed by the storm, which unexpectedly intensified into a Category 5 hurricane as it made landfall. Acapulco, a popular beach resort, bore the brunt of Otis' fury, suffering damage estimated to run into billions of dollars. The hurricane inundated streets, tore roofs from homes and hotels, submerged cars, and disrupted vital communications, road, and air access. This natural disaster caught many off guard, leaving the city of nearly 900,000 residents unprepared for the havoc it wrought.


Despite the grim news of Hurricane Otis, Mexico's economy remains resilient. A senior finance ministry official stated that the country's economy, the second-largest in Latin America, is expected to expand by 3.5% or more this year. Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio emphasized the projected growth in Mexico's gross domestic product (GDP) and downplayed concerns about the strengthening local currency negatively impacting exports. Yorio also noted that government debt is expected to reach around 47% of GDP this year, with a slight increase anticipated for the following year. Notably, the Mexican peso, which gained over 14% against the U.S. dollar in the first nine months of the year, has not yet had a detrimental effect on the country's key export sector, particularly the automotive industry.


The Mexican economy has had to grapple with inflation concerns, as annual headline inflation in the first half of October stood at approximately 4.27%, a figure slightly lower than the end of September and undershooting forecasts. Bank of Mexico board member Jonathan Heath, however, advised caution, stressing that the recent slowdown in inflation should not lead to premature celebration.


Remittances from the United States to Mexico reached a record-breaking $55.9 billion in 2022, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. These remittances are known to fund investments and productive activities that stimulate economic growth. Mexico ranks as the second-largest recipient of remittances globally, trailing only India. These payments, predominantly from Mexican migrants in the U.S., play a vital role in supporting countless Mexican households, acting as a lifeline in challenging times.


Europe

The European Central Bank made a significant decision by keeping interest rates unchanged after a series of ten consecutive rate hikes that began in July 2022, ultimately pushing the key rate to a record high of 4%. This decision comes as concerns loom over the state of Europe's economy, exacerbated by the Israel-Hamas conflict. The European Central Bank's move aligns with similar decisions by central banks like the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England to maintain borrowing costs, albeit at elevated levels, primarily due to the recent decline in inflation.


European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde highlighted the broad-based drop in inflation to 4.3% in September, with declining fuel costs and a moderation in food price increases. She emphasized that maintaining high interest rates for an extended period would aid in achieving the central bank's inflation target of 2%.


Economic conditions in the Eurozone have taken an unexpected turn for the worse, raising concerns about a possible recession. Data revealed that German economic activity has been in recession for some time, while the UK's businesses reported a decline in activity, adding to the risk of a recession ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate decision. Furthermore, there are indications that Germany could already be in a recession, with business activity contracting for the fourth consecutive month in October, leading some experts to label it as the "sick man of Europe." The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected a contraction of 0.3% for Germany, making it the only advanced economy expected to shrink this year.


In the UK, the largest mortgage lender, Halifax-owner Lloyds Banking Group, anticipates a decline in house prices for the current year and the next, with a recovery expected in 2025. This forecast reflects the impact of higher borrowing costs on the slowdown in house sales, despite the average house price remaining significantly higher than at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, as individuals working from home sought more spacious accommodations.


Lastly, Unilever, the company behind brands like Ben & Jerry's and Magnum, reported a notable drop in ice cream sales across Europe during the summer. Factors contributing to this decline included unfavorable weather conditions and consumers opting for cheaper alternatives. Although sales volumes fell by 10%, prices increased by over 8%, mitigating the revenue impact in this segment to a decrease of around 3%.


Asia

China's largest private property developer, Country Garden, appears to have joined the list of property giants facing default on their overseas debt. With a staggering $11 billion in offshore debt and an additional $6 billion in onshore loans, a potential default by Country Garden could mark one of the most significant corporate debt restructurings in China. This unsettling development adds to the growing concerns surrounding China's post-pandemic recovery. The property market's troubles are particularly noteworthy, as this sector accounts for a substantial third of the country's overall economy. While China's economy exhibited growth of 4.9% in the three months between July and September, it was a slower pace compared to the 6.3% expansion in the second quarter. Despite Beijing's efforts to stimulate housing demand through various measures, property sales remain below last year's figures, underscoring the challenges in the real estate market.


Over a decade has passed since China overtook Japan in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), an event that still resonates in the Japanese psyche. Now, Germany is poised to deliver another blow to Japan's national ego, as the International Monetary Fund predicts that Germany's nominal GDP will surpass Japan's this year, relegating Japan from the third-largest to the fourth-largest economy globally.


India's economic landscape is undergoing shifts as economists polled by Reuters anticipate slightly improved consumer spending during this year's festival season compared to 2022. However, the improvements are not expected to significantly accelerate the already impressive growth of the world's fastest-growing major economy. Despite these positive indicators, coupled with expectations of 6.3% growth for this fiscal year and the next, it is unlikely that the Reserve Bank of India will opt for an interest rate cut anytime soon. India's consumption, which constitutes about 60% of the economy, has been slow to recover to pre-pandemic levels. While the current quarter is expected to provide some economic lift, the overall growth outlook for the year remains largely unchanged.


Russia's central bank has taken proactive steps to combat inflation and strengthen the nation's weak currency, the rouble. In a higher-than-anticipated move, the key interest rate was increased to 15%, marking the fourth consecutive hike in borrowing costs. This decision comes as global inflation has surged, partly due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. As of September, inflation in Russia had reached 6%, prompting the central bank's response. Additionally, the Russian government has increased spending, directing resources towards its military efforts. These developments reflect the challenges Russia faces in managing its economic stability in a turbulent geopolitical environment.


[Disclaimer: The information provided in this blog post is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.]








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