Mexico Mexico might be the unlikely benefactor of continued tension between US and Chinese governments. As geopolitical fragmentation continues, Chinese companies are seeking alternative solutions to secure orders, with some continuing to build relations in Mexico. Tesla has reportedly asked its Chinese suppliers to establish plants in Mexico to support its planned "gigafactory" in the country.
This move comes as China invests significantly in Mexico, aiming to diversify its supply chains and overcome US trade restrictions. According to data from the Latin America and the Caribbean Network on China research portal, Chinese enterprises have invested around $20.84 billion in Mexican projects since 2008, with $8.29 billion of that total occurring since 2018.
The Peso continues to live up to its name as the “super currency” of Latin America hitting new record levels since 2015 on Tuesday as the Fed deliberated its rate decision. The peso was trading at 17.0180 per dollar during trading on Friday a level not seen since 14th December 2015.
US
Despite losing steam on Friday US stocks posted their best weekly gain since March of this year amid signs of a resilient economy that boosted hopes the Federal Reserve could end its rate-hike campaign soon.
Federal Reserve officials left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, skipping an increase after raising rates 10 times in a row since March 2022 at its fastest pace since the 19800’s. However, predicted that they might need to raise rates two more times this year as inflation, while moderating, remains stubborn.
According to data released on Tuesday by the Labor Bureau, inflation has continued to slow for the 11th consecutive month. The year-over-year rate has decreased from 4.9% to 4%. This decline can be largely attributed to stable food prices, decreasing costs of certain consumer goods such as appliances, and a significant 11.7% reduction in energy prices, as indicated by the consumer price index (CPI). The CPI closely monitors the prices of various goods and services commonly purchased by Americans and is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve.
Although the rate of inflation is decreasing, it remains uncertain whether it will reach the Federal Reserve's target of 2% in the near future.
Europe The European Central Bank raised its interest rates again this week for the 8th consecutive time to their highest level in 22 years as it upped its inflation predictions. Policymakers on the Governing Council voted to raise the eurozone’s key deposit rate by 25 basis points from 3.25% to 3.5%. ECB president Christine Lagarde also said that it is “very likely” rates will increase again in July - which would equal their record high set in 2000.
Recent business surveys conducted by data firm S&P Global have revealed a concerning trend for factories across the eurozone. In May, these factories reported a decline in new orders for manufactured goods as they grappled with their existing backlog. The duration for which these backlogs, initially accumulated during the early days of the pandemic, can sustain the global industry remains uncertain. Adding to the challenges, the industrial production of the 20-nation currency area experienced a significant decline in March, primarily attributed to a sharp decrease in Ireland. This indicator serves as a measure of output for manufacturers, miners, and utility companies within the eurozone.
UK wages, excluding the pandemic, have seen the fastest growth in 20 years, creating expectations of increased interest rates. Regular pay, excluding bonuses, rose by 7.2% in the three months leading up to April, although it still lags behind inflation. The Bank of England attributes higher inflation rates to significant pay raises. To curb price increases, the bank has raised interest rates 12 times since 2021. While higher interest rates benefit savers, they raise repayment costs for mortgage holders. The anticipation of further interest rate hikes has caused turbulence in the mortgage market.
Beyonce's recent world tour stop in Sweden has unexpectedly contributed to a surge in the country's inflation. The high demand generated by fans for hotels and restaurant meals during her visit resulted in Sweden reporting a higher-than-anticipated inflation rate of 9.7% in May. The spike in prices for accommodation and dining establishments played a significant role in this surprising inflation increase.
Asia
Asian shares continued to mirror optimism on Wall Street this week with the Nikkei 225 closing the week5.55% up to take Japan's benchmark index to almost 30% YTD. Hong Kong's Hang Seng advanced 5.75% while the Shanghai Composite rose 1.34%.
Japan's economy exceeded earlier estimates, experiencing a robust annualized growth rate of 2.7% in the first quarter. However, concerns persist among economists regarding the sustainability of this growth. Despite the Nikkei 225 index reaching new highs, surpassing 33,000 points a level not seen since the early 1990´s, traders and analysts question the durability of the current bull run. Some argue that the lack of significant changes in Japan's fundamental economic aspects, particularly its aging and declining population, may hinder sustained growth. This demographic shift could lead to reduced consumption and increased savings, posing challenges to the nation's long-term economic prospects.
Recent reports suggest that the Chinese government, under the leadership of President Xi Jinping, is actively working to strengthen the country's economy. Beijing is considering a comprehensive set of measures to stimulate growth, focusing on areas like real estate and domestic demand. As indications emerge, China's central bank has already taken significant steps by reducing short-term interest rates and contemplating a larger monetary stimulus package. These moves demonstrate China's commitment to reviving economic activity, particularly in light of an unexpected slowdown following pandemic-related lockdowns.
In a significant development, China's central bank, the People's Bank of China (PBOC), announced a reduction in short-term interest rates from 2% to 1.9% on Tuesday. This marks the first rate cut by the PBOC since August of last year. The objective behind this decision is to encourage borrowing and spending, thus stimulating economic growth.
Moreover, the PBOC injected 2 billion yuan (approximately $280 million) into the country's banking system. This action is part of a broader strategy of monetary easing, which aims to increase liquidity within the economy. The current measures taken by China's government and central bank demonstrate a proactive approach to counter the economic slowdown. By focusing on areas like real estate and domestic demand, the government hopes to generate sustained growth and maintain stability.
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